(Just a short post tonight. Had a long day that included being trapped in 6X12 pediatrician office for two hours with a two year old and five year old boy. Just because they're my own kids, doesn't lessen the torture. We passed the time by shoving tongue depressers under the door, playing games with the blood pressure monitors, and enduring witticism from the nurses, such as "Hey mom, aren't boys great?". Later, I went to parent observation day at my kid's school where I observed a captivating lesson on coloring in bears brown. For dinner, we drove into the city to have dinner with an old babysitter and picked up Steve in Times Square where we played chicken with pedestrians. 8:45 and finally at the computer.)
Yesterday, I spent a fair amount of time studying this breakdown of the election by state.
A quick question for my midwestern friends. When did Minnesota become a swing state? It hasn't voted for a Republican for president since a terrible mistake back in 1972. Why is Minnesota such a close state right now? Has it grown more conservative in recent years?
Why pick on us Minnesotans? I'm bewildered by the fact that this whole damn country seems to be on the brink of re-electing a miserable failure of a president. Ask instead how the US got into such a gullible and anti-intellectual state.
Posted by: PZ Myers | October 20, 2004 at 11:47 PM
>>Why pick on us Minnesotans?
You don't hit back?
Kidding! Ow.
Posted by: Mal Snay | October 21, 2004 at 12:22 AM
I'm just amazed that Bush is carrying Indiana by less than 20. Woohoo, go Hoosiers! We're making progressish sort of things!
Posted by: Nick Simmonds | October 21, 2004 at 12:43 AM
Well, to be fair, Oregon is a swing state also.
I've just adopted MN recently, so I don't have a long history here, but I think there are a couple possibilities. People here seem less likely to vote a party line -- witness the rise of the rise of the Independence Party (aka Jesse Ventura). And the Green Party won 5.2% of the vote in the last presidential election, even higher than California. Another possibility is the metropolitan / exurb split -- the outer ring has expanded enormously in the past five years.
Also, polls are going to be a lot less reliable in states like Minnesota, where people can register to vote on election day. Anyone can just roll out of bed, show the proper ID at their polling place, sign the rolls, and cast a ballot. I've voted in every election, and I've never bothered to register formally.
Even though they are officially swing states, in my heart of hearts I really can't see Oregon, Minnesota, and Wisconsin going for Bush.
Posted by: Thomasina | October 21, 2004 at 04:03 AM
Yes, MN has grown more conservative over the last 10 years or so - witness the election of Coleman (and various elections in the mid-90s). And the DFL has lost a lot of ground in the essentially conservative rural areas (MN's one of those states that tends to be characterized by its urban center - the Twin Cities - but the rest of the state is EXTREMELY different).
Jimbo at the cul-de-sac just did a great post about this.
Posted by: New Kid on the Hallway | October 21, 2004 at 07:31 AM
Oregon being a swing state is really rolling my mind. Portland metro area is so solidly Democratic--did the rest of the state gain population or something?
Posted by: Kai Jones | October 21, 2004 at 06:35 PM
NPR just did a full analysis of the Minnesota situation on All Things Considered last night. Surprise surprise, the issue has largely to do with the 'burbs. There is also the Wellstone conspiracy theory to consider, which many Minnesotans believe true.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4121123
Posted by: Lizzie Lawry | October 22, 2004 at 05:26 PM