Apt. 11D

Best Campaign Ad. Ever.

Thank You, Republican Debates!

I would like to thank the Republican debates for pushing me another step to the left. Just call me Hanoi Jane. I'm going to splatter the back of my car with I Heart Illegal Alien stickers and fly a rainbow flag in front of my house. 

 

Is Sarah?

During last Tuesday's election night shellacking, I surfed around the cable channels and caught a bit of Sarah Palin on Fox News. I haven't actually listened to Palin much in the past two years, though I've followed commentary on her speeches.

I was surprised. She has become much more polished and professional in the past two years. She looked more like a real politician than a cartoon character.  While not all of Palin's picks won on Tuesday, there's no question that she came out of this election cycle as a real power player.

The big question is, of course, will Sarah run for office in 2012?

Someone asked David Gergen that question this week, and he said that he didn't think so. He thought she was having too much fun and making too much money right now. She wouldn't want to really embarrass herself and go through the drudgery of a campaign. She has her reality show after all.

Dad said that he thought that she wouldn't be able to resist. She would win a nomination and then lose the election.

Question of the Day: Will Sarah run?

Ye Olde Attack Ads

I'll Bring Home the Bacon. Fry it Up in a Pan.

The Monkey Cage reports on research that finds that women congressional leaders are more likely to sponsor pork-barrel legislation.

We find that congresswomen secure roughly 9 percent more spending from federal discretionary programs than congressmen. This amounts to a premium of about $49 million per year for districts that send a woman to Capitol Hill. Finally, we find that women’s superiority in securing particularistic benefits does not hurt their performance in policymaking: women also sponsor more bills and obtain more cosponsorship support for their legislative initiatives than their male colleagues.

This may be because women have to work harder to get re-elected than men. They have to spend more time credit-claiming and position-taking. Pork-barrel legislation is a form of credit-claiming.

The Peer Group Effect

Really interesting article on the impact that peers have on adult behavior. Smokers lead others to smokers. Fat people can cause others to be fat. The methodology sounds a bit problematic. Critics says that the researchers were unable to prove causality and had instead just shown homophily.

Still, their findings sound correct. One of the researchers had become involved in the study because he was interested in whether there was a peer group effect on voting behavior. The article never followed up on this point.

I'm curious whether social networking software can lead to a peer group effect on political participation. If all your friends are posting status updates about voting for Candidate X, are you more likely to vote for Candidate X? Several friends posted status updates about voting in the NY primaries yesterday. Did this make their friends more likely to vote?

Who Liked Palin?

Jeremy Teigen of Recreational Poli Sci crunches the numbers to see who supported Palin in 2008. He looked at a sample of 458 Republicans and found that her support was slightly higher among older Republicans than younger Republicans. Her support was highest among the white and born-again. He was surprised that her support wasn't higher among gun-owners. And veterans didn't like her.

Check it out for the cool graph and ask him questions there. For more on the Palin mystique, The Monkey Cage took Douthat to task last week.

SarahPAC

Sarah Palin has launched SarahPAC. Some of the money will be used to pay off the RNC for her wardrobe and get the clothes out of the garbage bags.

Tabloid Talk

The 2008 election has been extraordinary for many reasons. First African-American president. First serious female candidate. Higher levels of voting turnout. All that stuff.

But this election was also extraordinary, because the tabloids turned their gaze away from Jolie/Aniston for a fraction of a second. Celebrity and politics merged with the photogenic Obamas and Palins. People magazine covers and paparazzi shots at the pool.

The tabloids never paid much mind to the Bush family. They're not a terribly good looking bunch. The Clintons were only interesting when the chubby girl with a g-string got involved. So, it's been awfully fun to check out Perez Hilton or watch the Insider and get my politics served up with a dollop of whip cream.

With the Obamas hiding out for a few weeks and Palin consulting with high powered Hollywood agents, the tabloids have returned to Jolie/Aniston for a few weeks. Even the New York Times has a piece on how Angie manipulates her image.

27 Votes

Nate Silver reports that Al Franken will win the recount by 27 votes. OMG!